Dollar Jumps, Gold and Silver Crash as Iran War Hits Stocks, Bonds, Base

Gold and silver sold off sharply as a broad risk-off liquidation hit equities, bonds and industrial commodities amid escalating Middle East conflict and a surge in energy prices. Silver broke down through $80/oz, falling as much as 19% from Monday morning’s 4-week high, while gold “sank” alongside a stronger USD and rising rates expectations; the move was framed as cash-raising/profit-taking in a cross-asset de-risking. The macro impulse was dominated by energy-led inflation fears and a USD shock: Brent crude pushed above $83/bbl (up 37.1% YTD), while Europe’s TTF natural gas jumped another 27.8% after a 39.2% surge on Monday following weekend US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent regional retaliation. The DXY dollar index rose 1.1% (largest daily gain since May last year). Rates repriced higher with global government bond losses; US 10Y Treasury yields rose 13bp so far this week (sharpest 2-session increase in 9 months), weighing non-yielding metals and reinforcing the USD headwind. Cross-asset stress was evident in equities and cyclicals: MSCI World fell ~2.7% by mid-morning New York (worst 1-day since last June) with major indices down (Nikkei -3.0%, DAX -4.2%, S&P 500 -2.2%). Base metals were hit (nickel -3.5%, copper -4.5% vs Friday), adding pressure to silver’s industrial-demand beta. Near-term catalysts are continued war/energy headlines, any further USD/rates spike, and whether forced liquidation stabilizes; downside risks remain if yields keep rising and the USD stays bid, while a sharp equity drawdown or escalation-driven haven bid could later reassert support for gold if real yields peak. Notably, the transcript also references gold having previously risen through $5,000/oz (Jan 25) and spiking near $5,600 four days later—highlighting how elevated volatility/positioning can amplify both liquidation downdrafts and subsequent rebound risk if the macro driver flips from inflation/rates to pure safe-haven demand.