Macron frames Évian G7 agenda in hope Trump will stay for whole summit

Macron is trying to keep Trump engaged at the G7 by packaging the summit around Iran, trade security and inflation, with the backdrop a sharp deterioration in the global macro outlook. The World Bank cut 2026 global growth to 2.5% from 2.9%, while war-linked disruption is already pushing shipping costs higher and the Bank of Japan and ECB are both tightening policy conditions amid renewed inflation pressure. The article frames the Iran conflict as the key geopolitical risk, with possible strain in the Strait of Hormuz threatening tanker flows and adding to commodity-price volatility. The World Bank now expects commodity prices to rise 22% this year versus an earlier forecast for a 7% decline, while France’s central bank governor warned of persistent inflation. For precious metals, the mix is broadly supportive on a risk-adjusted basis: higher inflation expectations, weaker global growth and elevated geopolitical risk typically underpin gold as a hedge. Near term, the main catalysts are further escalation around Iran, any move higher in shipping/energy prices, and central-bank commentary that reinforces the “higher for longer” rates backdrop.