No longer outrageous: Gold now has a path to $10,000 by 2029 - Capitalight’s Schieven

Capitalight Research’s Chantelle Schieven argues gold has a credible path to ~$10,000/oz within 5–7 years, potentially by 2029, driven by structural (not just cyclical) forces—chiefly elevated global debt and persistent geopolitical fragmentation. She frames the move as increasingly plausible given gold’s recent rate of ascent and the ongoing “tectonic shift” in the global financial/political system. Schieven highlights unusually large daily ranges as a hallmark of the current regime: in February, gold failed to move more than $50 on only four sessions, while it swung by more than $100 on 12 sessions. Despite this volatility, she views long-term momentum as still upward and says choppy price action has discouraged some speculative futures participation because near-term directionality has become harder to trade. On levels, Schieven characterizes downside risk as limited, saying she does not expect gold to retreat below ~$5,000/oz and silver below ~$60/oz absent a significant shift in geopolitical sentiment. She ties the bull market’s structural underpinning to post-Ukraine-war sanctions dynamics—prompting central banks, governments, and high-net-worth buyers to reduce perceived exposure to USD assets that could be frozen—while emphasizing gold’s lack of counterparty risk. Macro/policy implication: she argues high sovereign and private debt burdens constrain central banks’ ability to keep tightening aggressively, reducing the odds of rates staying “too high for too long” without broader economic strain. Key catalysts/risk factors she cites are continued Middle East conflict, China–Taiwan tensions, and deglobalization/formation of regional blocs; a meaningful geopolitical de-escalation would be the main stated risk to her thesis.