As high gold prices become the baseline, mining equities are poised to outperform in 2026 – VanEck’s Casanova

VanEck PM Imaru Casanova argues gold mining equities are set to outperform again in 2026 as spot gold holds near record highs above $5,000/oz, driving record margins and free cash flow across the sector. With estimated average industry all-in sustaining costs (AISC) still below ~$2,000/oz, she frames profitability as “durable” even if gold prices simply stay flat from here, given the magnitude of current margin cushion. Casanova highlights a key valuation shift: as investors increasingly treat elevated gold prices as a new baseline rather than a temporary spike, equity markets begin to embed higher long-term gold assumptions into miner valuations—supporting multiples and leverage to the underlying metal. She notes companies’ 2026 AISC guidance is broadly consistent with VanEck’s expectation for ~10–12% cost inflation vs 2025, implying the main threat to margins in a flat-gold scenario is cost creep rather than price. She points to recent performance and management tone as confirmation the cycle is “cash-generative and disciplined,” not an over-expansion phase: the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index rose 21.01% in February. From VanEck’s meetings with 40+ miners at BMO’s 2026 Global Metals & Mining Conference, she emphasizes strong balance sheets, more conservative reserve price assumptions (~$2,000/oz), and capital allocation focused on returns and lower-risk growth. Key risks flagged include permitting friction and geopolitics, but the near-term catalyst remains whether gold can hold current levels (or extend gains after +20% YTD), which would preserve exceptional FCF and reinforce equity outperformance potential through 2026.