Fed Cuts Are Coming Next and They Mean Recession | Mike McGlone

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Mike McGlone argues the Fed’s next move is not more hikes but a sequence of 50bp cuts, and he says that policy path ultimately points to recession. His core call for metals is more nuanced: gold and silver may stay highly correlated to equities in the near term, limiting their safe-haven behavior even as recession risks build. He says the market is underpricing the shift in inflation and growth dynamics, with stocks still dominating cross-asset pricing. On oil, McGlone expects crude to gravitate toward $70/bbl and says the recent move lower despite fresh US strikes on Iran is evidence pricing power has shifted away from OPEC and toward the Western hemisphere. He also points to China deflation pressure and Treasury-vs-gold dynamics as part of the broader setup. For gold, McGlone says $4,100/oz is “nothing” until the market clears $4,500/oz, implying current levels may not yet represent a decisive breakout. Near term, the key catalysts are Fed communication, equity-market volatility, and whether recession pricing starts to overwhelm the current stock-led correlation regime. The main risk to his constructive long-term metals view is that higher correlation to risk assets could keep bullion from performing as a clean hedge until the macro break actually arrives.