Gold holds above $4,300 as rate-cut bets build

AI desk brief

Gold held above $4,300/oz for the first time since June, trading around $4,340 after a nearly 7% weekly surge, as weaker US labor data, stronger speculative positioning and renewed Chinese central-bank buying reinforced the rally. The metal also stayed above its 60-day moving average after spending about a month clustered just over $4,000, suggesting the latest move has broken a short-term consolidation range.

The catalyst was an unexpected US payrolls loss of 23,000 jobs in July, which has intensified rate-cut expectations and reduced room for the Fed to stay restrictive even as inflation remains a concern. Hedge funds and money managers lifted bullish bullion bets to the highest level in more than six months in the latest CFTC data, while China added to its gold reserves in July by the most since October 2023.

Near term, the market is watching whether the combination of softer US growth, easier rate expectations and official-sector buying can sustain the breakout above $4,300. Geopolitical risk from the Middle East remains an additional support, but the article notes gold is still almost one-fifth below pre-Iran-war levels, highlighting how quickly conflict-related premiums can fade if risk sentiment stabilizes.