Oil prices rise and gold hits two-month high after Trump makes new deal demands on Iran – business live

AI desk brief

Spot gold hit a more than two-month high at $4,434.84/oz before easing 0.3% to $4,377/oz, as renewed geopolitical tension around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz boosted safe-haven demand. The move comes alongside a sharp oil rally, with Brent up 0.4% at $88.1/bbl and US crude at $82.52/bbl after a roughly 5% jump on Monday, keeping the market focused on inflation spillovers and the path for real yields.

The key near-term driver for gold is Wednesday’s US inflation release, after a weak jobs print prompted traders to scale back expectations for another Fed hike next month. Jefferies’ Mohit Kumar said benign inflation prints this month and next would give policymakers room not to tighten further, while also flagging the ECB as the more likely central bank to consider another hike at its September meeting. That backdrop keeps bullion supported, but the market is sensitive to any upside CPI surprise that could lift yields and cap the recent rally.

For now, the tape suggests a war-of-attrition market: oil could stay trapped in a $75-$95/bbl range while the Iran-US standoff remains unresolved, preserving a bid for gold as a hedge against geopolitical and inflation risk. Near-term risk is a hotter-than-expected inflation print, which would likely trigger profit-taking in gold after the push through prior highs. If inflation is benign, the path of least resistance remains toward fresh highs above $4,435/oz.