Gold price tops $4,500 in New York as tame US inflation cools Fed hike bets

AI desk brief

Gold surged to a two-month high after July US CPI matched forecasts, easing pressure on the Fed to hike next month. Comex December gold briefly hit $4,502.70/oz, its highest since mid-June, while spot gold touched $4,438.20/oz and was still up 1.2% at $4,422.34/oz. Silver outperformed sharply, with Comex September silver reaching $66.98/oz and spot silver up 2.4% to $66.25/oz. Platinum and palladium also firmed modestly, while central bank buying — led by China — was cited as an underlying support for bullion.

The inflation data showed headline CPI at 0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y, with core CPI at 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y, the slowest annual core pace since March 2021. Rate-swaps now price roughly a 40% chance of a September Fed hike, with October odds easing to about 60% from 75% and a December move fully priced. Two-year Treasury yields fell 3 bp to 4.18% and the dollar was little changed, a combination that helped bullion extend gains. Ole Hansen of Saxo said gold has defended the downside but still needs to confirm a renewed bull run, flagging $4,200 as key support and the 200-day moving average just below $4,500 as the next major test.

Near term, the market will focus on whether gold can hold above the 200-day average and whether spot bullion can catch up with the December contract’s breakout. The article also highlights geopolitical inflation risk from the still-closed Strait of Hormuz, which could keep rate-cut/hike expectations fluid and support precious metals if energy prices remain elevated. Silver remains the more volatile expression, up 13% since end-July but still about 8% lower in 2026 after January’s squeeze, while miners have significantly outperformed the metals, reinforcing the bullish equity beta to the move.