Gold price shakes off early profit taking after run to 10-week high

AI desk brief

Gold stabilized after an early profit-taking dip and finished firmer in New York as softer July inflation data reinforced expectations the Fed will likely skip a September rate hike. December Comex gold rose 0.3% to $4,435.00/oz after trading as low as $4,365.50 and hitting an intraday high of $4,454.60; spot gold recovered to $4,353.27/oz, leaving bullion roughly flat on the week after Thursday’s push to a 10-week high above $4,500 in New York.

Silver also held up: September Comex silver added 0.2% to $65.13/oz and spot silver gained 0.4% to $64.75/oz, trimming its 2026 decline to about 8%. Market pricing now implies roughly a one-in-three chance of a September hike, down from more than 40% a week ago. BMI said the precious-metals complex is up more than 10% month to date and argued the bulk of the correction is likely behind the market if the Fed stays on hold through year-end and the dollar remains in a 98-102 range; it sees gold averaging $4,400/oz this year.

Near term, gold remains supported by lower rate-hike odds and a softer macro tape, but the market still looks vulnerable to episodic profit-taking after the recent spike. Traders will focus on incoming labor data and Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole comments later this month for confirmation on the Fed path. Separately, a reported Venezuela request for the Bank of England to release 31 tonnes of frozen gold underscores geopolitics/official-sector sensitivity around sovereign bullion, though the immediate price impact looks limited.

Precious-metals equities continue to outperform the metals, with Hecla up 32%, Eldorado 31%, Equinox 30%, Coeur 28%, Agnico 27% and Newmont 26% over ten sessions versus +8% for gold and +12% for silver, indicating leveraged sentiment remains strong even as spot prices consolidate.