Why Gold Is Ignoring Yields and Could Return to $5,000 | Ole Hansen

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Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank argues gold is decoupling from nominal yields and can continue higher, with a path to $5,000/oz framed by the combination of heavy sovereign debt loads, persistent bond market stress and investor demand for a hard-asset premium. The key takeaway for desks is that 30-year Treasury yields sitting at multi-year highs have not stopped gold from rallying, suggesting the market is pricing longer-run credibility risk rather than reacting to rate levels alone. Hansen also highlights a severe physical squeeze in copper: a reported $535 LME backwardation and the risk that roughly 70% of exchange copper could be stranded in the U.S. due to dislocations in prompt supply. He says AI data-center buildout is now competing with governments and traditional end-users for capital and material, intensifying the squeeze across industrial metals. The interview extends to silver, where Hansen points to a structural deficit and ongoing mining supply constraints as the longer-term support case. Near term, the setup remains bullish for precious metals broadly if real-economy dislocations and fiscal concerns keep outweighing nominal yield signals. Gold is being treated as a hedge against sovereign balance-sheet risk, while silver retains leverage to tightening physical fundamentals. The main risk to the view is a reversal in the bond-market stress narrative or a sharp pullback in industrial demand expectations, but Hansen’s framing implies the imbalance in hard-asset allocation is still under-owned.