Gold, silver, miners surge as Treasury doubles buybacks

AI desk brief

Gold, silver and miners rallied sharply after the US Treasury said it would at least double buybacks of long-dated government debt, easing pressure on yields and the dollar. Spot gold was quoted around $4,484/oz, up 3.46%, while silver rose 3.33% to about $65.44/oz. The dollar index fell 0.78%, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 1.27% and the 30-year yield fell 1.84%, a clear near-term tailwind for non-yielding precious metals.

The move was driven by Treasury liquidity support rather than the Fed, with Bloomberg reporting the department will increase buyback operations in the 10- to 30-year sector by at least double. The tentative Sept. 9-Nov. 4 calendar had shown up to $14bn of purchases; doubling that implies at least another $14bn. The backdrop was already fragile, with a 10-year auction last week drawing the highest financing cost for that maturity since 2007 and a 30-year sale clearing at the steepest yield since 2001.

Miners amplified the metal move: GDX jumped 8.8% to about $96.88, Agnico Eagle rose 8.85% to roughly $282.44, and Barrick gained 7.66% to $45.33. Near term, the key question is whether Treasury buybacks can sustainably cap long-end yields or simply trigger short-covering; either way, lower real rates and a softer dollar are supportive for gold and silver momentum. Watch upcoming long-bond auction demand, the Nov. 4 end of the current buyback window, and any reversal in long-end yields as the main catalysts.