Gold miners climb as US Treasury yields rebound

AI desk brief

Gold miners outperformed even as bullion and long-dated Treasury yields moved the other way, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) up 2.3% at midday and Agnico Eagle, Newmont and Barrick each rising about 2%-2.2%. Spot gold was quoted near $4,509/oz, slightly lower, while the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield touched 5.27% before easing to around 5.25%. The divergence points to continued investor demand for precious-metals equities as a leveraged hedge against stubborn fiscal risks and elevated long-end yields.

The catalyst remains the Treasury’s stepped-up buybacks of longer-dated bonds, which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said could exceed the planned $4 billion next month and may be paired with a fiscal consolidation plan due by late this week or early next week. Market participants, however, were skeptical that buybacks alone can arrest the broader move higher in yields. DWS’s George Catrambone called the intervention “the equivalent of tossing paper towel into a tsunami,” while TD Securities’ Molly Brooks said the move was more “a Band-Aid for Treasury’s long-end.”

For metals, the key takeaway is that persistent debt and deficit concerns may keep gold supported even if nominal yields bounce on policy headlines. Miners are benefiting from operating leverage to bullion, so the stock rally can continue even on days when spot gold pauses. Near term, traders will watch the Treasury’s fiscal plan, follow-through in long-end yields, and whether fiscal credibility concerns continue to override the headwind from higher nominal rates.