Top of Mine: Costa sees mining as the cheapest way to invest in AI

AI desk brief

Otavio Costa argues mining is the cheapest way to gain exposure to the AI theme, but the precious-metals angle is the bigger near-term takeaway: he sees gold as part of a broader “global monetary race” and says the gap between gold and rising money supply is still closing. He also ties the bull case to weakening reserve replacement, poor discovery rates, and a supply backdrop that is failing to keep up with demand.

Costa says institutions are beginning to treat mining as a strategic sector again, with sovereigns, governments and investors shifting from indifference to active engagement. He highlighted junior miners as a key area to watch, especially mid-tier names that could become strategic reserve builders and high-quality assets likely to be brought into production by larger players.

On macro, Costa pointed to the comparison between today’s debt load and World War II, arguing that gold’s current role versus the Treasury market implies room for materially higher prices. He also framed China’s gold accumulation alongside US fiscal stress as part of the same de-risking trend, with the spot market already reflecting strength: gold was quoted up 1.5% at $4,673.20/oz, the highest since May 14.

Near term, the message is supportive for bullion and for miners with quality assets and reserve optionality. The main risk is that the article is thesis-driven rather than data-heavy, so traders will want confirmation from ETF flows, central-bank purchase data, and whether the latest gold strength extends through the next macro prints.