Gold price retreats from three-month high as inflation US gauge runs warm

AI desk brief

Gold retreated from a three-month high after a hotter-than-expected US PCE inflation print, with December Comex gold down 1% to $4,649.10/oz after touching $4,730.90 overnight and spot gold off 1.4% to $4,592.53/oz. Silver also eased, with September Comex down 1.1% to $67.96/oz and spot at $68.03/oz, though both metals remain sharply higher on the month: gold is up about 14% in August and silver 18%, keeping bullion above its 200-day moving average.

The macro trigger was July headline PCE at 3.7% y/y, a tenth above forecasts, while core PCE held at 3.3% as expected. That reintroduces a near-term headwind for non-yielding metals, especially with traders now focused on Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech as Fed chair for clues on the rate path. TD Securities said precious metals are “finding comfort in this higher range,” but cautioned that elevated energy prices and sticky inflation may limit a fresh run at record highs.

ETF demand remains an offset: bullion-backed funds added more than 28 tonnes last week, the largest weekly inflow since January, reinforcing the debasement-trade bid tied to deficits and a softer dollar narrative. Near term, gold likely stays range-traded but supported unless Jackson Hole turns decisively hawkish; a stronger-for-longer rates message would threaten the August momentum, while any hint of policy easing would keep the record-high retest in play.