Gold Dealers Can’t Afford to Hold the Metal Coming Back | Jeffrey Christian

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Gold is near $4,600/oz after its strongest monthly rally in decades, and Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group says the market is being met by selling from coin holders and other latecomers rather than a shortage of demand. He argues coin sellers are “late” to the move, while ETF buyers remain better timed, and says dealers/refiners are already quoting discounts on bars and medallions as physical metal comes back to the market. Christian focuses on availability of deliverable gold at today’s price, bank credit lines that support dealer inventories, and whether headline central-bank buying is really as strong as commonly portrayed. He also says CPM does not see a silver deficit, and pushes back on simplistic readings of Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawal data. On platinum, he says the premium to palladium has not yet been enough to trigger a meaningful autocatalyst substitution switch. For trading, the key near-term question is whether this move still has another leg or is already drawing in supply from holders and dealers. The interview implies ongoing support from ETF-led participation, but also warns that physical market tightness may be overstated and that price action can slow if supply keeps returning at these levels. Watch for further confirmation in ETF flows, dealer pricing, and the “single thing” Christian says he watches to judge whether the rally can extend.