Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Pulls Back as September Fed Hike Bets Jump, NFP This Week - FXLeaders

AI desk brief

Gold’s August rally has lost momentum after a hawkish Jackson Hole signal from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh pushed the dollar higher and lifted September rate-hike odds to about 57% from 33% pre-speech. Spot gold is described as having peaked near $4,700 before reversing toward $4,450, with the $4,400 area now the key near-term support and $4,000 the major downside floor.

The article argues that Warsh’s comments on still-elevated inflation and a resilient U.S. economy have raised the opportunity cost of holding bullion, while a firmer dollar is adding pressure on non-yielding assets. Even so, the broader August advance remains intact, supported by persistent Chinese buying and the view that the recent selloff may be short-term profit-taking rather than a full trend break.

The next catalyst is the August U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on September 4, the final major labor release before the Fed’s September 15–16 meeting. A strong jobs rebound would likely reinforce hawkish pricing and keep gold under pressure; another weak print would revive rate-cut expectations and could send gold back toward the highs. Near term, the tape is still technically constructive above $4,400, but macro data will likely dictate whether buyers can retake control.