Goldman Sachs Lifts Gold Price Forecast 2026 to $4,900 as Central Banks Keep Buying - The Cryptonomist

AI desk brief

Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end 2026 gold forecast to $4,900/oz from about $4,600 on Aug. 25, arguing that central bank reserve diversification remains the main structural driver behind the rally. The article says gold has already seen extreme volatility in 2026, breaking above $5,000/oz in January, spiking to an intraday record above $5,500, then falling back under $4,000 by late June before rebounding again.

The core bullish thesis is that official-sector buying is not a short-term trade but a multi-year reserve shift away from foreign currencies. The piece also cites the World Gold Council’s view that gold’s sensitivity to geopolitics and sentiment remains high, while Morgan Stanley argues permitting and regulatory bottlenecks make a mining capex super-cycle unlikely. That combination keeps supply growth constrained even as prices stay elevated.

For producers, the volatility is manageable for established names with operating cash flow but much more difficult for developers that need financing and construction certainty. The article highlights stronger operational updates from IAMGOLD and B2Gold, but the broader takeaway is that high prices are not translating into a broad-based supply response quickly enough to offset demand. Near term, the market will watch whether central bank buying stays firm and whether the latest rally can hold above the mid-year lows, with $4,900/oz now the bank’s official end-2026 target.