The Fight Isn't Over Cuts Anymore, It's Hikes | This Week In Focus

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Markets have effectively priced out a September Fed cut, with odds of a cut at zero and a hike/hold viewed as roughly 50/50, while gold is still up more than 10% for the month even after easing off its record highs. The piece frames the current setup as a regime shift: the old playbook linking rates, inflation and bullion is breaking down, but gold remains supported despite a less dovish policy backdrop. Former St. Louis Fed president Jim Bullard points to committee division and says central banks are moving out of Treasuries and into gold, reinforcing the reserve-asset bid. Phil Streible argues a hike would be a policy mistake and says inflation risks are of the wrong kind, while John Feneck highlights tungsten supply-chain exposure, a missing futures market in that metal, and investor misconceptions around miners. Near term, the key trading question is whether the market starts to price a genuine hiking risk rather than just a prolonged hold, which would be a headwind for gold and silver via real-rate repricing. Offset against that is ongoing central-bank diversification into bullion and broader skepticism about policy credibility, which can keep dips supported even after a strong monthly move.