Gold price outlook: What lies ahead for the yellow metal? Here's what Goldman Sachs says on bull run prediction - Livemint

AI desk brief

Goldman Sachs’ Tony Kim says the recent pullback in gold is only an “elongated pause,” not the end of the bull market, and argues $4,000/oz is a “pretty solid floor.” His preferred tactic is to scale into longs near $4,000 ahead of the next FOMC meeting, with the view that gold can still make new highs once current policy and geopolitics uncertainty clears.

The immediate headwinds are higher Treasury yields, a firmer US dollar and stronger-than-expected US jobs data on Sept. 4, which has lifted odds of a Fed hike on Sept. 16. Kim also flagged uncertainty around new Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s approach to inflation and rates, alongside the US-Iran conflict and its impact on energy markets, as factors complicating the near-term outlook.

The core structural support remains central-bank buying. Kim said global mine output is about 3,500t a year, while central banks have stepped up purchases from roughly 400-500t annually before the Russia-Ukraine war to around 1,000-1,100t now. WGC data cited in the piece show central banks bought 863t in 2025 versus a 2010-21 average of 473t, with estimated net demand of 345t in H1 2026. That leaves less metal available for jewellery, ETFs and physical investment, reducing the amount of fresh capital needed to push prices higher.

Near term, the key catalysts are US CPI and the September Fed meeting: hotter inflation would likely keep pressure on gold via yields and the dollar, while softer data could re-ignite rate-cut expectations and extend the bull trend. Asia demand has weakened temporarily due to higher energy costs and currency pressure, but the article’s bias remains that the broader uptrend is intact once macro noise fades.