【TMGM Financial Recap】Bulls And Bears Fiercely Battle At The $4400 Level, Rate Hike Expectations Suppress Gold Prices, Waiting For Data To Turn The Tide! - tmgm.com

AI desk brief

Spot gold remained locked in a tug-of-war around the $4,400 level after last Friday’s U.S. jobs data sharpened September Fed hike expectations and pushed yields higher. The article says gold has support near $4,320 and resistance above $4,500, with dip-buying still visible even as the near-term bias has turned softer on stronger labor-market data.

The catalyst was August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 versus expectations, with unemployment steady at 4.1%. That report reportedly lifted the implied probability of a 25 bp hike at the Sept. 15-16 Fed meeting from about 50% to 60%. Citigroup and Macquarie were cited as having raised rate expectations, reinforcing the point that higher real rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Near term, this week’s PPI and CPI will be the key swing factors. Sticky inflation would likely extend pressure on gold and keep rallies capped below $4,500, while softer prints could ease hike fears and allow a recovery toward resistance. Middle East tensions and higher oil prices remain a secondary support via inflation fears, but for now the market is still waiting for data to turn the tide.