Gold Price Heading Toward $4,700? Why the Rally Could Continue - SMM Metal

AI desk brief

Gold and silver are framed as still in a strong uptrend after a sharp summer squeeze: gold surged from $4,020 on Aug. 3 to $4,697 before pulling back to $4,282 after hawkish Jackson Hole remarks, while silver rose from a July 17 low of $54.74 to an August peak near $71.16, roughly a 30% rebound. The author argues the rally was driven by a weaker dollar impulse tied to Japanese FX intervention, a >5% yen gain versus the USD over the past month, and Treasury market turbulence that boosted safe-haven demand for precious metals.

The piece says U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s late-July yen intervention and the subsequent expansion of Treasury buybacks—doubled to at least $4 billion per operation for 10-, 20- and 30-year bonds starting Sept. 10—helped pressure the dollar and support metals. It also highlights the risk that Japanese investors may reassess foreign bond/equity holdings and that carry trades could unwind, potentially forcing sales of U.S. bills to cover yen shorts. The author cites 30-year Treasury yields touching a 19-year high in mid-August as part of the broader macro backdrop.

Near term, the article keeps the constructive metal case alive despite the pullback, but warns that hawkish central-bank messaging can still trigger sharp retracements. Key catalysts are the Treasury buyback program launch on Sept. 10, further yen moves, and any renewed stress in long-end U.S. yields. The excerpt is truncated after noting that market sentiment turned back toward rate-hike fears at the start of the week.