Gold Price Forecast: $4,511 Breakout Could Spark Momentum - FXEmpire

AI desk brief

Gold (XAU/USD) is compressing beneath resistance, with $4,511 flagged as the key breakout level that could trigger fresh momentum higher. The pair is consolidating for a third day below the 20-day moving average, but repeated resistance tests and limited selling pressure suggest underlying demand remains firm.

A decisive move above Friday’s high of $4,491 would first reclaim the 20-day average, while a break above $4,511 could open the way to the 200-day moving average at $4,538 and potentially extend toward the $4,802-$4,891 zone, with an ABCD projection at $4,984. On the downside, a drop below $4,365 would weaken the setup and expose a retest of the rising lower trendline; the broader bias remains bullish after last week’s hammer candlestick.