Mild price gains in gold as market pauses

Gold edged higher in early U.S. trading Thursday as the market balanced haven demand from heightened Middle East risk against headwinds from a firmer USD and higher yields. April gold was last +$2.00 at $5,181.10, while May silver outperformed at +$1.56 to $87.085. Geopolitical risk escalated around the Iran war, with the IEA describing the conflict as triggering the “largest supply disruption in history.” The report said Gulf producers have cut output by at least 10mb/d amid near-impassability of the Strait of Hormuz, with global supply expected to fall by 8mb/d in March (over 7% vs ~107mb/d in February). Oil was indicated around $91/bbl, reinforcing inflation concerns that could delay near-term rate cuts. Outside markets were mixed-to-bearish for non-yielding metals: the U.S. dollar index was slightly higher and the 10-year Treasury yield was ~4.23%. On the chart, Kitco flags the next upside objective for April gold bulls as a close above last week’s high/resistance at $5,434.10; near-term positioning remains sensitive to further moves in crude, yields, and any additional shipping/energy disruption headlines. Separately, the U.S. launched a Section 301 probe into alleged excess manufacturing capacity across a broad list of major trade partners (incl. China, EU, Mexico, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan), a medium-term macro risk that could feed tariff-driven inflation and complicate the rates path—an important swing factor for gold’s real-rate impulse.