Platinum, palladium price forecasts cut by BMI as car sales shrink and South African supply recovers

AI desk brief

BMI cut 2026 price forecasts for platinum to $1,900/oz from $2,000 and palladium to $1,400/oz from $1,500, citing weaker auto sales and faster South African mine recovery. The firm still sees both metals ending 2026 in deficit, with platinum holding a structural lead over palladium into the rest of the decade; spot was quoted around $1,850 for platinum and $1,360 for palladium after a sell-off BMI links partly to the recent 40bp rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield.

On the demand side, BMI now expects global vehicle sales to fall 1% this year, while the WPIC sees light-vehicle production down 1%, platinum autocatalyst demand down 4% to 2.9 million oz and jewellery demand down 15% as Chinese buyers rotate back to gold. Supply is easing from South Africa, where BMI lifted 2026 platinum mine output to 4.3 million oz, though the article stresses the long-term mined supply trend is still lower; platinum lease rates remain tighter than palladium at 2.2% vs 0.8%, Comex platinum stocks are down 39% ytd to 393,000 oz, and Aberdeen’s physically backed platinum ETF has recovered to 1.22 million oz after earlier Middle East war-related liquidation.