Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

The FOMC held the fed funds target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, while reiterating a data-dependent approach to “the extent and timing” of any further adjustments. The statement describes activity expanding at a solid pace, unemployment little changed, and inflation “somewhat elevated,” keeping policy restrictive—generally a headwind for non-yielding gold absent risk-off support. Notably, the Committee flagged “elevated” uncertainty and explicitly cited uncertain implications from developments in the Middle East for the US economy, adding a geopolitical risk premium channel supportive for bullion. The vote was not unanimous: Governor Stephen Miran dissented, preferring an immediate 25bp rate cut—an incremental dovish signal relative to a clean hold. For precious metals, the key tradeable read-through is that the Fed is not yet declaring victory on inflation, but the presence of a cut-dissent raises the probability of an earlier easing pivot if data softens. Near-term catalysts are the next inflation/labor prints and Chair Powell’s press conference guidance (and the dots, if released separately), with gold likely to trade primarily off front-end rate expectations and real yields; Middle East headlines remain a two-way volatility risk.