Gold is tariff-proof. Canada has $11 billion a year of it stuck in permitting

AI desk brief

Canada has 15 gold projects with feasibility-level plans, reserves and no final construction decision, representing 36.6Moz of reserves and about 2.5Moz/yr of eventual steady-state output — roughly 35-40% above current Canadian mined production. Using a $4,300/oz gold price, the projects would generate about $146bn of lifetime revenue, with around $2.4bn/yr in combined federal/provincial taxes and duties once mature; first pours cluster late in the decade, but permitting remains the main bottleneck.

The article frames gold as effectively tariff-proof: bullion enters the US duty-free, and Canadian doré is refined and sold into London and Zurich at the same global price. It argues that the opportunity is being held back by Canada’s lengthy approvals process, with examples including projects waiting for provincial decrees or COMEX/government decisions and S&P/PwC data showing very long discovery-to-production timelines in Canada.