OECD: global economy has been more resilient to Iran war than expected

AI desk brief

OECD says the global economy has so far absorbed the Iran war better than expected, helped by oil stockpile releases, lower Chinese energy imports and fuel switching, but it warned the outlook remains heavily dependent on a durable Middle East resolution. It sees 2026 global growth at 2.9% and flagged renewed or persistent energy disruptions as a risk for higher inflation and weaker growth.

For metals, the key transmission is via energy-driven inflation and higher sovereign yields: OECD explicitly warned that oil and gas price spikes could feed higher inflation, while rising bond yields were already cited as a risk. That is mildly supportive for gold if conflict flare-ups keep real yields and risk sentiment under pressure, but the recent pullback in oil below $100/bbl reduces immediate inflation pressure.