Top Wall Street firm resets gold price target for 2030 - Yahoo Finance

AI desk brief

Bernstein cut its 2030 gold target to $5,600/oz from $6,100, citing the surge in real rates rather than any deterioration in physical demand. The note says the Fed path has shifted materially, with real yields now around 2.7% versus about 1.7% in early March, but still argues gold can grind higher as long as central-bank buying remains strong.

The firm’s core bullish pillar is official-sector demand: central banks bought more than 1,000 tonnes in each of 2022, 2023 and 2024, absorbing nearly a quarter of annual mine supply, and a WGC survey found 95% of central banks expect reserves to rise over the next year. Bernstein sees further room for Asian and Middle Eastern reserve managers to increase gold allocations, while risks to the thesis include higher Fed rates, firmer real yields, weaker China demand and sustained ETF outflows. Geopolitical support from Middle East tensions remains a secondary offset.