Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Holds $4,123 as Weak Jobs Data Cuts Fed Hike Odds to 18% - fxleaders.com

AI desk brief

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $4,157-$4,165 after a weak September jobs report lifted the near-term bullion bid, with only 29,000 payrolls added and the October Fed hike probability cut to 18% from 64%. The setup is now slightly bullish, but upside is still capped by a firm dollar and elevated Treasury yields; first resistance is $4,191, with support at $4,123.

The piece also points to a structural demand floor from ETFs: global gold funds reportedly drew about $18bn in August, lifting holdings to an all-time high of 4,189 tonnes. Even so, the author remains only neutral-to-slightly bullish until price can sustain a break above $4,191, with the next upside levels at $4,246 and $4,314.