Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Rebounds From $4,070 as Fed Pause Bets Clash With 5.3% Yields - FXLeaders

AI desk brief

Gold is rebounding off $4,070 and trading near $4,136, but the near-term setup remains mixed to slightly bearish while price stays below $4,179 resistance. The article cites 10-year Treasury yields around 5.3% and a stronger dollar as the main headwinds, even as markets price only an 18% chance of an October hike and roughly 80% for December.

Supportive flows are offsetting some of the macro pressure: global gold ETFs reportedly saw about $10bn of inflows in September, equal to 67 tonnes, while China extended its official buying streak to 23 months, lifting PBOC holdings to 77.47 million fine troy ounces. Key levels are $4,109 and $4,070 support, with resistance at $4,179, then $4,222-4,227 and $4,298; a break above $4,227 would turn the bias more bullish, while a move below $4,109 would reopen downside risk.