Oil prices climb amid supply fears and shipping attacks; prospect of rate rise weighs on UK housing market – business live

AI desk brief

Brent crude jumped to $102.8/bbl, up $2.62 or 2.6%, as supply fears built around shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and a hurricane-related hit to US output. The oil spike, alongside renewed inflation pressure from the Iran war, is reinforcing a more hawkish rates backdrop that is also weighing on UK housing and keeping policy expectations in focus.

Markets now price the Bank of England to raise Bank Rate from 3.75% to 4.0% in November, with three further quarter-point hikes seen next year. For precious metals, the mix of higher energy-driven inflation and tighter policy expectations is a two-way macro input: supportive for inflation hedging, but potentially negative via firmer real-rate pressure.