Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Breaks Trendline as Softer Yields Put $4,227 in Focus - FXLeaders

AI desk brief

Gold/XAU/USD is trading around $4,180.55 after reclaiming short-term moving averages and breaking a descending trendline, with $4,227.37 now the next key resistance and $4,179/$4,142 initial support. The setup is modestly bullish near term as softer Treasury yields, a slightly weaker dollar, and reduced odds of an October Fed hike (17%) support the move, though December hike odds remain high at 83%.

Structural demand remains a major tailwind: physically backed gold ETFs added about $10bn (67t) in September, lifting holdings to a record 4,256t, while Q3 inflows reached $31bn and 211t. China extended its buying streak to 23 straight months, with PBoC reserves rising to 77.47m fine troy oz in September (+740,000 oz, or about 23t), reinforcing the bullish medium-term backdrop even as lower oil prices temper some haven demand.