Gold Price Forecast: Falling Oil Prices Boost Gold, Central Bank Rate Hike Risks Remain Key - TradingKey

AI desk brief

Spot gold held above $4,200/oz and gained 1.3% over the prior week as falling U.S. Treasury yields and lower oil prices eased rate-pressure and supported the metal. TradingKey says near-term upside is capped by Middle East risk and the chance that renewed inflation from energy shocks could revive Fed hike expectations; key levels are resistance at $4,228/$4,293/$4,333 and support at $4,180–$4,200, with a break lower exposing $4,100–$4,050 and then $3,944.

The longer-term backdrop remains constructive on reported record ETF inflows and continued central bank accumulation, including PBoC adding 740,000 oz in September for a 23rd straight monthly increase. Technically, gold is still below its 20-day and 60-day moving averages and RSI 47.25 suggests only a corrective bounce so far, not a confirmed trend reversal.