Gold Price Forecast: US CPI in Focus as XAU/USD Eyes a Rebound Towards US$4,300 - Mitrade

AI desk brief

Gold was under pressure ahead of the US CPI print, with spot XAU/USD down 0.3% at about US$4,142.85/oz for a third straight session. The market is trading a US$4,100–US$4,200 range; a sustained break above US$4,220 could target US$4,300, while a loss of US$4,100 opens US$4,000.

The key catalyst is September CPI, with Reuters consensus cited at +0.6% m/m headline and +3.6% y/y, versus +0.4% and +3.4% previously. Softer inflation would likely weaken the dollar and yields and support gold, while a hotter print could revive Fed-tightening expectations and cap any rebound; elevated oil and Strait of Hormuz supply risks add upside inflation pressure and complicate the policy outlook.