Gold Prices Rebound Above $4,100 as Rising US Inflation Brings Rate-Hike Risks Back to Market - TradingKey

AI desk brief

Spot gold rebounded more than 1% to $4,156.08/oz after an overnight selloff, but the move was mainly technical as hotter U.S. inflation data kept rate-hike risks in play. September CPI rose 0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y versus expectations, with core CPI at 0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y.

The inflation re-acceleration was driven by energy: the U.S. energy index jumped 5.2% m/m and gasoline surged 9.1%, prompting traders to briefly price October rate-hike odds near 50% before easing back to roughly 30%-40%. Near term, gold remains capped by shifting Fed expectations and dollar strength, with attention on upcoming Fed commentary to gauge whether energy inflation is viewed as temporary or persistent.