Gold, Metals Crash: Is This The End Of The Supercycle? | Ian Harris

Ian Harris argues the recent selloff across metals is a near-term liquidation tied to a broader commodity shock, not the end of the supercycle. He cites gold down 20% from highs, silver down 40%, and copper down 11%, but says the move is being driven by recession fears, speculation unwinds, and short-term sensitivity to global supply disruptions rather than a change in the long-term fundamental story. The discussion is framed around the Strait of Hormuz closure and the knock-on effects across oil, industrial inputs, and semiconductor supply chains. Harris highlights energy emergency measures in the Philippines, subsidy support in New Zealand, rerouting efforts by Australia, New Zealand and India, and China preserving domestic oil inventories. He also points to helium dependence in Taiwan and South Korea as another example of critical-mineral vulnerability, reinforcing the argument that deglobalization is exposing fragile supply chains. For precious metals, the key takeaway is that bullion and silver are being hit by broad risk-off/forced selling dynamics even as the structural scarcity narrative remains intact. Harris’ view is that the “cupboard is still dry,” implying that any near-term weakness may be more of a correction than a cyclical top. The near-term risk is further macro slowdown and speculative de-grossing; the catalyst to watch is whether commodity disruptions deepen enough to sustain the inflation/supply-shock bid back into metals.