Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to Extend Rebound on Treasury Yields Retreat and Central Bank Demand - FXLeaders

AI desk brief

Gold rebounded toward $4,185 after defending the $4,000 area, with weaker U.S. dollar action and a retreat in Treasury yields offsetting hotter-than-expected U.S. producer inflation. The note flags $4,150 as initial support and $4,200/$4,230 as near-term resistance, with a sustained break needed to confirm the rebound.

Macro drivers remain mixed: September PPI rose 1.3% m/m and 6.3% y/y, energy costs jumped sharply, and October hike odds were cut to around 15% after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments. On the supportive side, central-bank buying remains a structural backstop, with Poland adding 97.8t through August and China adding 80.2t, including 20.2t in August.