Gold Price Forecast: Inflation, Treasury Yields and the Dollar - www.equiti.com

AI desk brief

Gold is under pressure because higher inflation has kept Treasury yields elevated and supported the dollar, even as energy costs and geopolitical risk would normally be supportive. The article cites gold falling toward $4,085 as oil neared $100, with the dollar index up 2% and the US 10-year yield up 53bp to 5.3% in September, which WGC flagged as key drivers of the decline.

The key market split is between ETF demand and futures liquidation: global gold ETF holdings rose 67t in September, while COMEX net managed-money positioning fell 84t. The piece argues that a Fed pause would do little for gold if markets still expect restrictive policy, and that the more important catalyst would be easing real yields or a softer dollar; alternatively, rising yields tied to fiscal concerns could eventually become supportive for bullion.