Gold Prices Drop Back to 4000: Institutional Investors Exit Market Amid Massive Central Bank Purchases – Who Should You Trust? - 36Kr

AI desk brief

Gold has slipped back to 4,000 in the piece’s framing, while the author argues China’s central bank is still buying into the correction and that institutional investors are exiting. The excerpt says China resumed gold purchases in November 2022 after Russia’s reserve freeze highlighted FX-sanctions risk, citing 2022 global central-bank buying of 1,082 tonnes and China’s later accumulation of 10.16 million ounces, or about 316 tonnes, over the following 18 months. It also says China’s gold reserves were only 3.2%-3.5% of official reserves at the time, versus much higher ratios in peers such as Portugal, Russia and India.

The article frames the central bank as a “reverse buyer”: since the restart in November 2024, monthly buying has been negatively correlated with monthly gold price changes, with a cited correlation of -0.45, while correlation with the absolute gold price is only +0.07. It says gold peaked at 5,626 in February 2026, then corrected as much as 29%, after which monthly purchases reportedly increased from 160,000 ounces to 740,000 ounces by September, the sixth-highest level in nearly four years. The broader thesis is that de-dollarization, tariff/geopolitical risk and rate-cut expectations keep the long-term bull case intact even if price is correcting.