‘We don’t have inflation’? Five charts show the US economic reality of Trump’s second term so far

AI desk brief

US inflation has re-accelerated to 4.2% in May and stayed above 3.4% after the Iran-war oil shock, while the Fed hiked rates by 25bp in September and mortgage rates have moved back above 7%. The piece frames the macro backdrop as one of sticky prices, higher energy costs and a renewed tightening bias, all of which matter for precious metals through real-rate and dollar channels.

The article also notes that tariff-related price pressure had eased earlier in 2026, but the current driver is oil, with US average gas prices at $4.32/gal in mid-October versus $3.02 a year ago. For metals, the near-term implication is mixed to slightly negative: inflation support is positive for gold as a hedge, but the higher-for-longer rates backdrop is the more immediate tradeable signal.