Gold Price Forecast: $4,096–$4,125 Zone Sets the Tone After Fed Decision - FXEmpire

AI desk brief

Gold traders are focused on today’s Fed decision, with markets pricing a 90.6% chance of no change in the 3.75%-4.00% range. The piece argues that a surprise October hike would be bearish and could push gold below the October 2025 low at $3,886.46, while sticky inflation from elevated crude could keep pressure on the metal even without a hike.

On the charts, spot gold is still in a downtrend. The key near-term zone is $4,096.52-$4,125.05: a sustained break below it would favor sellers and expose $3,975.65, then $3,942.10 and $3,886.46; a move above $4,125.05 would weaken the bearish case and reopen $4,199.08-$4,217.40.