Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Rejected at $4,074 Ahead of PCE After Hawkish Fed Hold - FXLeaders

AI desk brief

Spot gold is under pressure near $4,025 after failing at $4,074, with traders watching $3,977 as the key near-term pivot and downside targets at $3,935.89 and $3,893.18 if that level breaks. The move comes after the Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00% in a 10-2 vote, with two officials favoring an immediate hike and CME FedWatch still pricing roughly an 83% chance of a December increase.

The setup is bearish below $4,074.33, especially with US PCE and Q3 GDP due at 12:30 GMT; a hotter PCE print would reinforce further tightening and likely weigh on gold, while a softer reading could revive the bounce. The article also notes that central bank buying remains a structural support over the longer term, with Goldman Sachs estimating 79 tonnes purchased in August, including 25 tonnes from China.