Price pressure on gold, silver ahead of key U.S. inflation report

Gold and silver are under pressure in early US trading Friday ahead of the Fed’s key inflation gauge (Jan PCE). April gold was last down $26.80 to $5,099.00, while May silver fell $1.732 to $83.395, with traders braced for a volatility spike around the data. Consensus for the PCE report is +0.3% m/m and +2.9% y/y on headline, with core PCE seen at +0.4% m/m and +3.1% y/y. The macro calendar is heavy alongside PCE (2nd estimate of Q4’25 GDP, Jan durable goods, and JOLTS). The piece also flags persistent inflation anxiety tied to Middle East conflict-driven energy risks, while noting the USD index is firmer, WTI is weaker around $94/bbl, and the US 10y yield is ~4.275%. Geopolitics remains a key tail risk: the article lists escalating Iran-war headlines (including disruptions/mine-laying risk in the Gulf and rising fuel costs), alongside a high-stakes US-China trade negotiating session in Paris (Mar 16–17) ahead of a Trump–Xi meeting slated for Mar 31–Apr 2. Near-term, the desk focus is whether PCE prints above/below expectations to reprice front-end rates and the USD, with follow-through likely into gold’s technical levels. On technicals for April Comex gold: bulls’ next objective is a close above resistance at last week’s high $5,434.10; bears target a break below solid support at $5,000. Initial resistance is cited at $5,132.40 then $5,200. The setup implies a data-driven test of $5,000 support is plausible if PCE surprises hot and the dollar/rates firm further, while a cooler print could re-open upside toward $5,200–$5,434.