Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Tests $3,920 on Midterm Election Day After 2% Oil-Driven Rebound, NFP Friday - FXLeaders

AI desk brief

Spot gold is consolidating after a sharp oil-driven rebound, with Reuters quoted at $3,926.52/oz and December futures at $3,936.30/oz, while the 4-hour chart shows resistance at $3,920.17-$3,951.69 and support at $3,869.48. The rebound was driven more by the 7.4%-7.6% slide in Brent/WTI than by safe-haven demand, as lower energy prices ease inflation fears and reduce pressure on the Fed to stay hawkish.

The near-term setup remains bearish below $3,951.69, especially if US data stay firm: October ISM manufacturing rose to 55.5, and markets still price about a 73% chance of a December rate hike. Traders are also watching Iran/Hormuz headlines, the Nasdaq’s weakness, and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls after the article cites expectations for 68,000 jobs; a soft labor print would support gold, while a strong one would likely pressure it further.