Gold Price Forecast: US-Iran deal hopes support XAU/USD near $3,950 as it retains Monday’s gains - www.tmgm.com

AI desk brief

Gold is holding near $3,945 after Monday’s rebound, helped by softer oil on hopes of a US-Iran deal, but the near-term setup remains bearish while XAU/USD stays below the 20-day EMA at $4,063.86. The metal is still close to Friday’s yearly low of $3,870.23; a break below that support opens $3,800 and then $3,700, while only a daily close back above the EMA would ease immediate downside pressure.

The macro backdrop is mixed: lower oil could help anchor inflation expectations and reduce pressure for higher-for-longer rates, which supports bullion, but the article also flags upcoming US catalysts including the midterm elections, JOLTS, and September payrolls. Geopolitical headlines around Iran remain a risk, though the market has so far looked through the reported drone incidents with no material oil impact.