Gold Forecast: What’s Next After Its Biggest Daily Gain Since August? - FXEmpire

AI desk brief

• Spot gold rose over 1.3% to around $4,115 on November 5 after gaining over 3% the previous day. The source attributes support to dollar weakness and falling Treasury yields. CME FedWatch’s 82% probability of a December rate increase leaves Friday’s payrolls report a policy catalyst; inflation signals could complicate the response.
• WGC reported Q3 2026 central-bank purchases of 321 tonnes, up 42% year-on-year, and physically backed ETF inflows of 211 tonnes. These could cushion corrections, but weaker jewellery and bar-and-coin demand limits breadth; official buying is no automatic floor.
• The source’s recovery scenario requires holding above $4,000, with initial resistance at $4,200. A renewed break below $4,000 would weaken that scenario and expose $3,870; it concludes October’s correction is not definitively over.