Gold miners could double even if bullion stalls, says Ninepoint portfolio manager

Ninepoint Partners Sr. PM Nawojka Wachowiak argues the gold-mining equity trade is still early-cycle despite many miners already being up ~100–150%, and says the bigger upside typically comes as generalist equity capital broadens beyond large-cap producers into developers/explorers. Her core point: this rally began with central banks buying physical gold (starting 2022 and ongoing), while equity investors largely missed the first phase—creating a lag that leaves miners “historically inexpensive” versus the gold price and broader equities. Wachowiak frames the cycle as unusual versus prior gold bull markets because institutional/retail equity participation arrived late, with investor attention anchored in tech/AI through 2024 and only shifting meaningfully as geopolitical tensions, trade disputes and macro uncertainty intensified in 2025. She highlights gold’s renewed portfolio role as “insurance” against currency/geopolitical risk amid persistent fiscal deficits and de-dollarization debates, and stresses the sector’s small size—implying even modest allocation changes (e.g., ~5% portfolio weight) can materially move mining equities. Positioning-wise, she describes a typical capital-flow sequence: first wave into large, liquid producers (often via ETFs/institutional flows), followed by a later phase into smaller-cap developers and explorers—where she believes the market has not fully rotated yet. Ninepoint is positioned for that progression with roughly half in producers and the remainder in developers/explorers, citing strong producer cash-flow fundamentals and capital returns as ongoing support. Near-term, the key catalyst is whether broader equity allocators continue to increase exposure beyond the initial large-cap bid; the main risk is bullion stalling long enough to delay the valuation mean-reversion and risk-on rotation into smaller caps. Watch for sustained gold ETF inflows, improving mining equity breadth/advance-decline beyond majors, and M&A/financing conditions as confirmation that the next leg (developers/explorers) is starting.