Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Holds $4,030 After Hot CPI Puts a 50bp Fed Hike on the Table - FXLeaders

AI desk brief

• Spot gold recovered to around $4,049 after Tuesday’s 2.8% fall to $4,021.36; silver rose about 2% above $52.4. The source attributes gold’s decline to hotter-than-expected October CPI and reports December hike probabilities of 88.2% for 25bp and 11.8% for 50bp.
• The reported dollar rally could pressure gold; higher nominal yields alone do not establish higher real yields. Heraeus says central-bank purchases are on pace to exceed 2025, offering a potential counterweight.
• The author is cautiously bullish above $4,015.07: a two-hour close above $4,078.71 targets $4,113, then $4,148; a break below trendline support opens $3,969. Soft PPI or Fed pushback on 50bp would support recovery; opposite signals would weaken it.