AI helped the UK defy expectations – but will Britain’s resilience fizzle out?

AI desk brief

UK GDP grew 0.7% in the third quarter, versus an optimistic City forecast of 0.3%, while Deutsche Bank estimates AI-related spending added 0.3–0.4% to growth this year. Resilience faces pressure from less certain AI investment and household energy bills projected to rise about 25% in January, with inflation approaching 5% next year. City investors expect at least two further quarter-point Bank of England increases, taking rates to 4.5% by end-next-year. Tighter policy could weigh on gold if it lifts expected real yields, but nominal-rate expectations alone do not establish that effect, particularly amid renewed inflation pressure.