Gold Slumps 3% Below $3,900: What Is Causing the Continued Decline in Gold Prices? - TradingKey

AI desk brief

• Spot gold fell over 3% to $3,864/oz on November 12 ET; the article attributes the decline to above-forecast October inflation, hawkish Fed signals and dollar strength. TD Securities says these headwinds outweigh official-sector buying of 675 tonnes year-to-date, up 6% versus 2025.
• Citi cut its 0–3-month target from $4,800 to $4,500, retaining $5,000 over 6–12 months. Its 60% baseline assumes normal Hormuz transit resumes in Q4 2026, geopolitical de-escalation and $65–70/bbl Brent, enabling Fed cuts and lower real rates.
• Citi’s 30% bear case puts gold at risk of $3,500 if energy disruptions sustain inflation and rate hikes. Its 10% bull case requires a swift U.S.–Iran agreement, sharply cheaper oil, rapid Fed easing and dollar weakness to exceed the baseline target.